Causal Inference and Statistical Significance Essay

Causal Inference and Statistical Significance Essay

Causal Inference

Causal inferencing determines the relationship between two variables. One of the variables must be an independent variable while the other is a dependent variable. In causal inference, the empirical relationship between these variables is established. This correlation should not be explained by the third variable of confounders. Causal inferencing establishes causality such that the independent variable must precede the dependent variable, usually considered as the outcomes in this causality. In epidemiology the concept of causality and causal referencing dates back to the times of John Snow when he tried to explain the cholera outbreak in Golden Square, London in 1854 (CDC, 2021). In John Snow’s series of investigations, he concluded that water contamination preceded cholera outbreaks in specific areas on his map. Therefore, causal inference is the process of determining the empirical relationship between an independent variable and a dependent variable.

Causal inference plays an important role in my daily life and government policymaking. In my day-to-day activities, I encounter different situations that require instant decision-making. Learning is a continuous process and the desired outcome of learning is to be able to effectively apply the learned concepts the provide solutions. My interactions in everyday life require providing explanations for occurrences leading to making associations. However, causation requires making inferences based on established causes. When I develop cold or flu-like symptoms, I would make an inference that I had an interaction with individuals or disease vehicles infected with the virus. This interaction has to precede the development of symptoms. in the ministry policymakers, learners’ failure achieves higher grades with an inadequate learning environment. Therefore, interventions are directed towards improving learning conditions. Ministry policymakers rely on the causal association of educational outcomes and preceding factors. Leaners’ success in education can be inferred back to educational stakeholder collaborative commitment. Collaboration between the learners, educators, policymakers, and subordinates is the independent variable in this case.

Probability and Statistical Significance

The process of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been widely to report significance in statistical testing and analysis. In null hypothesis testing, an experimental factor is tested against a set hypothesis, and the decision to reject the null hypothesis is determined by the value of significance. P-value is a statistical term used to refer to the probability value. It is a numeric method of presenting the significance of the results in statistical analysis and description. In making statistical inferencing and deception, a p-value less than 0.05 is considered statistically significant and the null hypothesis can be rejected. The smaller the p-value the stronger the significance. In these cases, an alternative hypothesis is accepted. The significance level is denoted as an alpha or a value. The alpha level of 0.05 is commonly used to make the margin of error as small as possible. There are alternatives to using the alpha value in statistical hypothesis or theory testing. Effect sizes, confidence interval, interval estimation, Plot-Plus-Error-Bar Procedure (PPE Procedure), and power analysis are some of the alternatives to NHST in theory testing. Novel methods such as research program strategy (RPS) (Krefeld-Schwalb et al., 2018) and Bayesian analysis (Quintana & Williams, 2018) have also been used.

Another concept, p-hacking has been used in research reporting to only present elements of the data analysis that leads to desirable results. Also known as data dredging, p-hacking is misused to present desirable patterns in data and results by manipulating the statistical analysis process so that the p-value returns to less than 0.05. This malpractice leads to tampering of evidence and sometimes may be confused with selective reporting. According to Adda et al. (2020), p-values have significance in reporting clinical trials. The p-hacking process would lead to inappropriate results thus low integrity of practice policies and their adaptability into governance. Provision of incentives to researchers has been associated with malpractice during drug trials leading to inappropriate approval. Future studies that would apply may jeopardize the quality of evidence-based practice (EBP) because EBP relies upon research evidence to inform practice and policy.

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References

Adda, J., Decker, C., & Ottaviani, M. (2020). P-hacking in clinical trials and how incentives shape the distribution of results across phases. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117(24), 13386–13392. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1919906117

CDC. (2021, December 20). Principles of epidemiology. Cdc.Gov. https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson1/section2.html

Krefeld-Schwalb, A., Witte, E. H., & Zenker, F. (2018). Hypothesis-testing demands trustworthy data—A simulation approach to inferential statistics advocating the research program strategy. Frontiers in Psychology, 9. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.00460

Quintana, D. S., & Williams, D. R. (2018). Bayesian alternatives for common null-hypothesis significance tests in psychiatry: a non-technical guide using JASP. BMC Psychiatry, 18(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12888-018-1761-4

 

I need 275 words per answer please. thanks.

1.Describe how the idea of causal inference can apply to your interactions in everyday life.
Also, make an argument for how the idea of causal inference could be applied the way we
approach ministry.

2. Begin by explaining what the p value reveals about the probability that a study is replicable.
Next. describe the major alternatives to the use of α < .5 (NHST). What is p-hacking?
Describe common researcher practices can be described as p-hacking and how research
results might be implicated as a result of p-hacking. Moreover, how are future research
studies which are attempting to replicate these studies implicated as a result of p-hacking?

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                                                                   Essay Grading Rubric                                                                  

Criteria		Levels of Achievement
	Content 70%	Advanced 90-100%	Proficient 70-89%	Developing 1-69%	Not Present
	Content	61 to 70 points The essay exceeds content requirements: Your answers to the provided prompt are clearly presented in at least 275 words, showing a clear reflection on key concepts. You have interacted with course textbook or scholarly research (including at least 3 citations) that demonstrates mastery of key issues and critical thinking. You have thoroughly answered the statistical question or problem posed in the essay.	52 to 60 points The essay meets the content requirements: Your answers to the provided prompt are clearly presented in at least 275 words, showing a clear reflection on key concepts. You have interacted with course textbooks or scholarly research (including at least 3 citations) that demonstrates mastery of key issues and critical thinking. You have thoroughly answered the statistical question or problem posed in the essay.	1 to 51 points The essay meets some of the content requirements: Your answers to the provided prompt are clearly presented in at least 275 words, showing a clear reflection on key concepts. You have interacted with course textbooks or scholarly research (including at least 3 citations) that demonstrates mastery of key issues and critical thinking. You have thoroughly answered the statistical question or problem posed in the essay.	0 points Not present
Structure 30%		Advanced 90-100%	Proficient 70-89%	Developing 1-69%	Not Present
	Grammar and Spelling, APA Formatting (30%)	26 to 30 points The essay exceeds requirements: Essay is written using proper spelling, grammar, and current APA format. The essay includes a title page and reference page.	18 to 25 points The essay meets requirements: Essay is written using proper spelling, grammar, and current APA format. The essay includes a title page and reference page.	1 to 17 points The essay meets some of the structure requirements: Essay is written using proper spelling, grammar, and current APA format. The essay includes a title page and reference page.	0 points Not present